Based upon the June 25th market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the July 2002 expiration is currently pricing in a 6 percent probability that the FOMC will raise the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 1-3/4 percent to 2 percent on June 26 (versus a 94 percent probability of no rate increase).
Summary Table
une 19: 94% for No Change versus 6% for +25 bps.
June 20: 94% for No Change versus 6% for +25 bps.
June 21: 94% for No Change versus 6% for +25 bps.
June 24: 94% for No Change versus 6% for +25 bps.
June 25: 94% for No Change versus 6% for +25 bps.
June 26: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.