June 25 - CBOT Fed Watch

In advance of next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 26, the Chicago Board of Trade will be reporting daily rate change probabilities in the FOMC's federal funds target rate, as indicated by the CBOT®30-Day Federal Funds futures contract. The CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract is a key benchmark interest rate barometer that reflects the overnight effective rate for excess reserves that are traded among commercial banks in the U.S. federal funds market.

Based upon the June 25th market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the July 2002 expiration is currently pricing in a 6 percent probability that the FOMC will raise the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 1-3/4 percent to 2 percent on June 26 (versus a 94 percent probability of no rate increase).

Summary Table
une 19: 94% for No Change versus 6% for +25 bps.
June 20: 94% for No Change versus 6% for +25 bps.
June 21: 94% for No Change versus 6% for +25 bps.
June 24: 94% for No Change versus 6% for +25 bps.
June 25: 94% for No Change versus 6% for +25 bps.
June 26: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.