New analysis released today by ISI Markets, the global market intelligence provider known for its unique depth and breadth of coverage of emerging markets, confirms that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has rapidly taken centre stage as the primary route for global trade flows seeking alternatives to traditional channels. The data strongly indicates that major economies, notably China, are actively engaging in supply chain reconfiguration, cementing ASEAN's role as the definitive "connector economy". The insights from ISI Markets were based on comprehensive data generated by its newly launched CEIC ASEAN premium database.
Despite its scale, ASEAN has long posed analytical challenges due to the fragmented nature of its data, spanning ten economies with differing languages, currencies, and statistical systems.
CEIC ASEAN Premium addresses this gap by providing a unified, high-frequency, subnational database that integrates official, local-language, and alternative data sources. The platform enables economists, investors, and strategists to monitor and model ASEAN’s economies with unprecedented comparability and granularity.
Key Themes:
- FDI Flow Acceleration: Current trade analysis confirms Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia are now established as the primary hubs for rerouted manufacturing capital (FDI), showing the most notable shifts in import trends globally following the start of diversification efforts in 2017.
- Active Trade Bridging: ASEAN actively functions as the essential processing hub, demonstrated by the strong positive correlation between China’s exports to ASEAN and US imports from ASEAN since 2018, a quantifiable link that continues to maintain global supply chain continuity.
- Trade Upgrading: Vietnam’s expanding trade surplus with the US coinciding with a widening trade deficit with China demonstrates the classic pattern of trade diversion. This is reinforced by the rapid increase in China's import dependency on Vietnam for electrical equipment (HS 85 category).
- Future Manufacturing Hub: Thailand is accelerating its structural pivot, evidenced by the growth of domestic Electric Vehicle (EV) production capacity from 1% to 7% in just eighteen months, underlining ASEAN’s role in next-generation manufacturing.
The analysis shows that geopolitical and tariff pressures are driving a strategic pivot, compelling global companies to establish resilient trade channels outside of existing bilateral routes. Accumulated direct investment abroad by China since 2017 correlates with significant shifts in import trends across key ASEAN markets and has only intensified throughout 2025. Specifically, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, alongside Mexico are experiencing the most notable trend changes, indicating they are now crucial recipients of manufacturing and capital flows aimed at diversification.
"CEIC ASEAN Premium provides undeniable clarity and conviction out of complexity. The global supply chain has not simply fractured; it is actively rerouting, and ASEAN is the pivotal switching mechanism," said Steve Pulley, CEO of ISI Markets. "Leveraging ASEAN's scale and trade frameworks is a strategic imperative to ensure continued access to global markets. For investors, this translates into secular growth opportunities across the region's manufacturing, digital, and energy sectors. CEIC ASEAN Premium is the only intelligence product in the region that provides the breadth and depth necessary to uncover these dynamics."
The data confirms that as global firms operationalise diversification strategies, ASEAN’s commitment to internal integration and its immense market scale of over 650 million people, position it perfectly to be the world’s essential economic bridge.
