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- Annual home price growth edged slightly higher in December to finish the year at +3.4%, the softest growth since 2011, when the market was recovering following the financial crisis
- The number of homes for sale in 2024 increased 22% leaving for-sale inventory at its best level since mid-2020, with a quarter of markets – primarily in southern states – back above pre-pandemic levels
- Climate events are a focal point for the market entering 2025; ICE data shows 17,000 homes and condos were in the path of the L.A. fires, with broad implications for both households and municipalities
- ICE daily mortgage data is already showing the financial stresses facing fire-affected homeowners, with nearly 5% fewer mortgage holders making payments by mid-January when compared to December
- Nationally, mortgage delinquencies have gradually been on the rise over the back half of 2024, especially among FHA and VA loans, suggesting performance will become a growing focal point in 2025
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE), a leading global provider of technology and data, today released its February 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report, based on the company’s robust mortgage, real estate and public records data sets.
Home prices ended the year on an up note but 2024 was the softest year for home price growth in more than a decade. This month’s Mortgage Monitor analyzes the latest trends shaping the housing market heading into 2025, including a deep dive into the local and broader impacts of the California wildfires, which hit while homeowners in southern states are still recovering from the most recent hurricane season.
“Natural disasters continue to be in the spotlight across the country, and our hearts go out to the tens of thousands of affected households,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research for Intercontinental Exchange. “Early data shows financial pressures building among homeowners impacted by the ongoing California wildfires, while at the same time, more than 56K homeowners are still struggling to get back on track with monthly payments across seven states in the wake of last year’s major hurricanes.
“ICE’s McDash Flash daily data suggests that nearly 5% fewer homeowners inside California’s Palisades and Eaton fire zones had made their January mortgage payment by mid-month, when compared with the same time in December,” Walden continued. “Keep in mind those fires broke out after many homeowners had already made their January payments, so we likely won’t see the true stresses those homeowners are facing until February payments become due.”
“We’re also beginning to see potential downstream impacts among a number of the more than 140 municipal entities that were at least partially exposed to the ongoing wildfires, with spread-widening being seen in City of Los Angeles water and power municipal bonds which are typically paid through local water and power revenues. This represents perhaps the first time the bond market has experienced a nearly immediate repricing of municipal debt due to a natural disaster,” said Walden.
Turning to the broader market, ICE’s U.S. Conforming 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate Lock Weighted APR Index Futures, suggest modest improvement in rates over the spring buying season as of Jan. 21, with 30-year rates now implied to be near 6.6% by July 2025.
Overall, for-sale inventory enters the year as a bright spot for a market that’s been dealing with deep deficits in recent years. Inventory levels grew by 22% in 2024, with a quarter of markets, largely in the southern U.S. now back to or above pre-pandemic levels.
“At the current rate of improvement, another 15% of markets, primarily in the South and West would be on pace to see inventory levels normalize this year,” Walden said. “At the same time, Midwest and Northeast markets continue to face steep deficits and a slower path to recovery. Given the disparity of inventories across the country it is no surprise to see 18 of the 20 strongest housing markets from a price growth perspective located in inventory-starved portions of the Midwest and Northeast.”
From a mortgage performance perspective, the market enters 2025 on a mixed note. Overall, the national mortgage delinquency rate remains 22 basis points (bps) below pre-pandemic levels, but mortgage performance is a tale of two markets. Performance remains strong among GSE and portfolio-held loans, with delinquencies among portfolio-held mortgages down 11 bps from last year and 1.1 percentage points from the beginning of 2020. FHA delinquencies, on the other hand, have been sharply rising, and now sit 2.5 percentage points above pre-pandemic levels. VA delinquencies have also been on the rise, up 80 bps in 2024 and 83 bps from the beginning of 2020.
Despite gradually rising delinquencies in recent months, the total number of foreclosures started and completed (sales) in 2024 hit record lows – outside of the COVID-19 moratoria – due to the prevalence of forbearance and other loss mitigation efforts, along with the strong equity footing of mortgage holders in today’s market. Low foreclosures aside, mortgage performance is likely to be a focal point in 2025.
Further information on this and other topics can be found in this month’s Mortgage Monitor.
