Participants in the tour made individual estimates on the total size of the crop, which ranged from 329 million bushels to 508 million bushels. The weighted average was 419.76 million bushels. Last year's final estimate for the tour was 355.074 million bushels.
Overall, the Kansas wheat crop looked good with some concerns regarding a lack of moisture and some disease.Moisture was less than adequate in fields observed on the second day of the tour, between Colby and Wichita, and on the third day routes between Wichita and Kansas City. Stripe rust, leaf rust, powdery mildew and nitrogen deficiency were common problems seen with this year’s crop, along with some signs of aphids and frost damage. Wheat was mostly in the boot to heading stages, with some fields seen on Thursday still in the flag stage. Frost damage as a result of colder temperatures last weekend in certain areas of Kansas will not show full effects until 7 to 10 days after the initial frost.
Crop scouts on the tour spent Tuesday, Wednesday and today surveying Kansas, usually the top U.S. wheat producing state, trying to assess the production potential of hard red winter wheat for this year. It was observed by crop participants that the wheat seen on the third day could be above average potential if it receives moisture in the near future, during the heading stage of development. The average yield for the third day was 42.8 bushels per acre, 1.2 bushels lower than the 2004 estimate of 44 bushels per acre on the third day.
Emphasis was placed on the fact that this is what the current crop looks like at this given point in time. Rain is a major factor in the final outcome of the 2005 crop, enhancing production if moisture is seen in the next few days, or lowering production if there is none. More detailed information from the tour can be found on the KCBT’s website at http://www.kcbt.com.
