ESMA’s 3Q16 overall risk assessment remains unchanged from 2Q16. Market developments at the beginning of 3Q16 were dominated by the strong reactions to the outcome of the UK referendum, reflecting high economic and political uncertainty. In the same manner, markets were taken by surprise and briefly disrupted by the outcome of the US Presidential Election in early November. Investment fund liquidity remained a concern following the temporary redemption suspensions by several openended UK real estate funds. From mid-July volatility abated and equity prices recovered, yet concerns about financials remained with banks’ valuations reaching historical lows. While main risks remain high, our outlook for market, liquidity and contagion risk is now assessed to be stable. From a wider perspective, the low yield environment and related sustained concerns with regard to excessive risk taking persisted. Geopolitical and economic uncertainty impacted on macroeconomic forecasts, weakening the EU economic growth outlook in the medium-long term.
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