The October 10 week is shortened in the US by the Federal holiday on Monday in observance of Columbus Day.
Earnings season for the third quarter 2011 begins with release of numbers from Alcoa on Tuesday. The pace of reports is still slow, but will gather steam in the October 17 week.
While the US data calendar is reasonably busy, only the numbers for retail and food sales for September on Friday are likely to have a big impact. This data could be on the soft side except for motor vehicle sales which were solid for the month. Consumers were generally quite cautious in their spending in September, but there is the possibility that decent sales activity at department stores and discounters could provide a little upward momentum. Otherwise, gasoline prices declined and that will reduce the dollar amount of sales for service stations. Elsewhere consumers stuck to necessities, although a good bargain could tempt some buying.
The two earliest of the monthly measures of consumer confidence will help gauge if attitudes were less pessimistic as October started. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for October on Tuesday, and the preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday both come on the heels of a slight improvement as September ended. Current readings are consistent with a gloomy outlook, but any brightening would be welcome at this point.
The Import and Export Price Indexes for September on Friday should reflect slight increases in petroleum prices for the month, and a modest decline in agricultural product prices. Upward pressure from prices for imports of motor vehicles should abate further as supplies of finished cars and parts become more plentiful.
Data on international trade for August on Thursday will help round out the available information for net exports for the preliminary third quarter GDP report at 8:30 ET on Thursday, October 27. Imports typically start to rise at this time of year to meet expected demand for the holiday shopping season, but retailers are signalling that they have modest expectations for the upcoming months. Inventory building will probably be quite restrained.
The numbers for business inventories for August on Friday should show that inventories were...Read more