The first week of November is very busy in terms of macroeconomic data releases. It encompasses the two-day FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, the U.S. national elections on Tuesday, the Treasury's quarterly refunding on Wednesday, and the monthly employment report on Friday. Over the course of the week there is a fairly steady stream of other economic reports, while four other major central banks hold meetings during the week. All-in-all, this may be a difficult week with which to keep up.
The October employment report at on Friday is foremost in importance among the economic data. Early market expectations centre on a modest increase of around 60,000. This is expected to be on gains in private payrolls, with little change in government jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 9.6%. If this is the case, then the labour market continues to tread water, adding insufficient jobs to bring down the unemployment rate, but not worsening either.
The October ISM manufacturing index is due on Monday, and the non-manufacturing index on Wednesday. Other data has hinted as some improvement in the factory sector for the month, but the details do not suggest that employment has picked up substantially. If soIf so, the national measure should not signal robust hiring in the goods-producing sector data. Services-providing industries are harder to forecast, but if the non-manufacturing employment index is higher, then it will add to expectations for private payrolls. There is a possible boost from widespread hiring in retail in advance of the holiday shopping period.
New orders for factory goods in September are due on Wednesday and should take its tone from the strong report on orders for durables. Commodities costs have been on the rise and this should be visible in the change in non-durable goods orders.
The FOMC holds its two-day session on Tuesday and Wednesday. It almost universally anticipated that the Committee will introduce another round of large-scale asset purchases, although the size and manner of the buys is open to speculation.
Other major central bank meetings are on the calendar for the week. The Reserve Bank of Australia statement is expected at...read more
