If the calendar for the October 3 week is a bit light on the number of data releases and appearances by Fed officials, it has enough that could be heavy hitting for markets. The release of the employment data for September on Friday will be the focal point of the week. The release of the BLS's annual revisions for the establishment survey for March 2010-March 2011 will be incorporated into this report. The September data will also get back the 45,000 workers after the end of the strike at Verizon in August.
The ADP National Employment Report for September on Wednesday will be anticipated for a hint on the direction of private payrolls, but it has been somewhat uneven in the last few months. The presence of the Verizon strikers was not accounted for in the August data, and their return will probably not be reflected in the September number.
The Challenger report on layoff intentions in September at 7:30 ET on Wednesday will probably show the increased pace in job cuts announced, especially in the financial industry. Any sign of a pickup in layoff activity will be concerning in the current economic climate, but levels still remain modest by historical standards, and mostly confined to a few sectors - notably government.
The ISM indexes for manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in September may be stronger than the regional data from Fed District Banks and some Purchasing Managers indexes. Areas along the East Coast were particularly hard-hit during Hurricane Irene and the earthquake on August 23. Both occurred late in the month and had an impact on activity into early September. The manufacturing index is set for release on Monday, and the non-manufacturing index will be released on Wednesday. Although we do not anticipate strong readings, both should still signal expansion.
Initial jobless claims for the week ended October 1 on Thursday should continue to show some improvement as impacts from severe weather fade, and a wave of layoff activity ebbs. Levels of claims remain elevated and are likely to remain near the 400,000-mark which seems to be the consistent with the current underlying trend.
The August report on construction spending on Monday probably will not add much to what is known about residential activity except for home renovation and repair. New information about spending for public works and non-residential building will round out the picture.
The data for new orders for factory goods in August on Tuesday should be...Read more
.jpg)
