The focus in the coming week will continue to include events in Europe, especially with the U.S. hosting the US-EU semi-annual summit this week, but the failure of the Congressional budget Super Committee puts fiscal restraints in play that may add interest in the key U.S. domestic indicators due near the end of the week., including the US labour market data on Friday.
US data highlights in the coming week also include chain store and auto sales and the manufacturing ISM, all on Thursday. Economists look for signs of modest growth in all the data, and the early estimate is +112,000 for overall payrolls on Friday.
Monday data is focused on housing, although also includes the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
Tuesday includes the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence, which is forecast to rebound to a reading of 44.4 in November after plunging in October to a reading of 39.8. The Michigan Sentiment index rose solidly in November.
By Wednesday, the data starts to thicken-up with the ADP data possibly giving a clue to Friday’s report and the weekly Crude Oil stocks data due from the EIA, while the Chicago PMI is also forecast to rise to a reading of 59.0 in November after falling slightly to 58.4 in October. The Chicago PMI is the one index that appears to consistently indicate expansion.
As mentioned, jobless claims, the ISM, Natural Gas stocks and construction data are all due Thursday, while domestic-made light vehicle sales are also expected to rise to a 10.4 million annual rate in November after rising very slightly to 10.0 million in October. The seasonal adjustment factors in November are the second most accommodative of the year, behind only January.
Initial jobless claims are expected to fall 2,000 to 391,000 in the November 26 week. Claims have been below 400,000 in each of the last three weeks.
Construction spending is forecast to rise 0.5%. Housing starts fell slightly in the month but have generally been stronger recently.
The ISM manufacturing index is expected to rise to a reading of 51.5 in November after falling slightly in October. The regional data already released suggest only modest growth.
Then on Friday, non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise 112,000 in November, continuing a trend of modest payrolls gain that are just treading water rather than making any real headway into knocking down unemployment.
The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 9.0%. Hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2%, while the average workweek is forecast to stay at 34.3 for yet another month...Read more
.jpg)
