The June 20 week has a light US data calendar with little to distract from the upcoming FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Among the economic data, it will be that related to the housing market that has the most impact on wider markets. The Richmond Fed's Survey of Manufacturing for June on Tuesday comes on the heels of soft reports from the New York and Philadelphia Districts. Last month the Richmond report's general activity index slipped back into a contractionary reading for the first time since September 2010. The Richmond number tends to lead the other District Bank outlooks. If it turns higher, it may be consistent with temporary conditions that led to a brief slowdown in manufacturing. If it holds in negative territory, it will raise the possibility that the current slowdown will be more sustained. The advance report on durable goods orders for May on Friday should look a bit stronger than the 3.6% decline in April. Last month the transportation component was quite soft after declines in civilian aircraft orders. Aircraft orders advanced modestly in May, and should support overall orders. Nonetheless, there may be other disruptions from the supply chain or weather impacts that will restrain orders. The release of the third estimate of first quarter GDP on Friday will probably be a non-event. At this point the second quarter is well advanced, and any revisions to the first quarter are likely to be small.
Initial claims for the week ended June 18 on Thursday will be for the survey comparison week to May, and levels of new filings are likely to be lower than the 414,000 level in the May 14 week. The general trend for new and continuing claims is working its way...Read more
