The US economic data in the July 18 week will largely focus on housing and could offer the first hint that sales activity is starting to revive a bit after the disappointing spring. Earnings reports for the second quarter 2011 will be numerous, and include some of the most carefully watched industry leaders, covering a number of industries. Foremost among them are probably those in the financial sector. The Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook for July on Thursday will join the New York Fed's Empire State Survey in setting expectations for conditions in the factory sector on the national level. Anecdotal evidence indicates that some of the special factors that discouraged perceptions for manufacturing in May and June could now be easing, and that there should be a return to more positive attitudes. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicator for June is scheduled on Thursday and is expected to rise for a second month in a row. Positive contributions are expected from interest rates, money supply, building permits, vendor deliveries, and plant and equipment. A few indicators related to the labor market will be released.
Initial claims for the week ended July 16 on Thursday will include the survey comparison week data from June. Claims tend to be volatile around this time of year, and it may make it harder to get a read on the state of the labor market in advance of the July employment report (Friday, August 5). The seasonal adjustment will have to contend with an influx of claims by government workers after the shutdown in Minnesota, and perhaps fewer layoffs in autos as the normal summer plant closures are fewer than usual this year. The BLS will release two separate reports on Friday. Mass layoff activity in June could be...Read more
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