The January 16 week is shortened by the presence of the ML King, Jr. Birthday observance on Monday. While markets and Federal offices will be closed, the day is not universally a business holiday.
There will be a number of earnings reports released that day, retailers will be offering sales to move out winter merchandise and introduce spring items, many private businesses will be open. Some data normally released Tuesday -- like the weekly numbers for retail activity -- will be moved to Wednesday.
The relatively light economic data calendar is mainly packed into Wednesday and Thursday, and during which markets will have a lot of fresh data to consider in advance of the next FOMC meeting. The main themes will be for inflation, manufacturing, and housing.
The December data on the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
Recent comments by Fed officials indicate that attention is shifting back to the potential for too low prices as the surge in commodities prices over the summer months continues to abate. The December inflation numbers are likely to reflect falling food prices and moderation in some key components like motor vehicles. While prices for oil were on the rise the last couple of months, those for gasoline and home heating oil for December indicate that there will be little upward pressure in the finished energy components of either index.
The release of the New York Fed's Empire State Survey on Wednesday and the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook on Thursday will set the tone for conditions in the factory sector in January. The general activity index in both reports continued to signal expansion in the last couple of months, albeit at a fairly soft pace.
Any strengthening of the trend will be a welcome indication that manufacturing will continue to support the recovery.
The report on industrial production and capacity utilization for...Read more
