The economic data calendar is densely packed Tuesday-Thursday next week and the most closely-watched will likely be retail sales and the Consumer Price Index. The release of the FOMC meeting minutes from January 25-26 will also get a close read to see if there was more dissention among the Committee than was apparent in the unanimous vote and to get a look at the Fed's updated economic forecast.
Elsewhere, The Bank of Japan governors meet to consider monetary policy on Monday and Tuesday, while the G20 finance ministers will meet in Paris on Friday and Saturday. The agenda there will likely include further discussion of global trade imbalances, rising food prices, and foreign exchange.
Retail sales data is due on Tuesday. Same-store sales comparisons for fiscal January suggest that consumers retreated less than usual in 2011, but the series of winter storms that affected much of the US at one point or another left the weekly measures of retail activity on the soft side. Increases in gasoline prices will provide some boost to the numbers, as will strong sales of motor vehicles.
There are back-to-back-to-back numbers on inflation - Import and Export Price Indexes for January, CPI, PPI from Tuesday through Thursday. All will move of essentially the same cause – higher commodities prices in foods and energy. However, the extent of the impacts will vary according to the measure.
Elsewhere, the New York Fed releases its Empire State Survey for February on Tuesday, and the Philadelphia Fed publishes its February Business Outlook on Thursday. The January report on industrial production and capacity utilization could well be restrained by the severe weather in much of the US that forced closures in many businesses.
Import and Export Price Indexes for January are due on Tuesday and should reflect changes in commodities prices. On the import side, a relatively flat reading of petroleum should keep increases moderate, but there will be ...read more
