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Weekly Market Commentary
12th February 2012
Provided by TA Knowledge
Welcome to the Weekly Market Commentary from DGCX, providing you with a snapshot of what's happening in the energy, precious metal and currency futures markets.
The commentary and analysis included in the DGCX Weekly newsletter is provided by TA Knowledge, a leading UK-based provider of news and intelligence.
Please note that the observations and views expressed in this newsletter do not reflect the views of DGCX and are solely the view of the writer (TA Knowledge).
Economic Data Overview
Next week looks set to be dominated by the market's response to the news that the Greek Prime Minister gained approval from his Cabinet for the deeper budget cuts required to secure a second bailout package. This averts imminent default, a euro currency and debt crisis as well as a domino effect which would undermine countries like Italy and Spain and possibly bring the future of the whole euro project to an end. Many have said that Greece is not the biggest problem in Europe and even if they do not succeed they can drop out of the euro and not derail the whole project. The problem is that despite a positive news flow from Europe since the beginning of 2012 there has been little steady positive momentum in solving the euro crisis for the past two years. The markets are impatient and need to see progress if business is to return to normal and not lurch from one failed crisis meeting to the next. The second bailout should be good news for the euro currency and narrowing bond spread against peripheral heavily indebted countries. In addition it may bring support to the oil, gold and silver markets, which in the past week have been on the defensive. Looking ahead to the main events in the week ahead, traders will watch Japanese GDP which is forecast to come in at a weak -0.3%. Election fever is building in the US as Barack Obama holds a press conference on Tuesday with the possibility of new spending promises to help the economy. The Bank of Japan is meeting on interest rates but is expected to leave policy unchanged. The UK inflation data is expected to come in at the upper end of the survey range and the market will also be watching the Bank of England inflation report. In the US the FOMC minutes will be released and the issue of QE3 may become clearer as a result. German GDP is also expected which has been better than forecast in recent months. However, the broader European growth figures are also anticipated and they will show a much weaker outlook. ... Read more
