The week ahead leads up to the Christmas holiday and the bond market will close early on Friday, December 23, and will remain closed on Monday, December 26.
The proximity to the holiday means that the second-tier data releases will get scant attention, and markets will concentrate on the few big reports for the week namely durable goods and the Q3 GDP data, while broader markets will also focus on housing starts, existing home sales and other housing data. Some of the data will be released slightly sooner than usual to allow for holiday schedules.
The calendar of public appearances by Federal Reserve and government officials will remain quite sparse until after the New Year's observance.
The data on new orders for durable goods in November is set for release on Friday. The transportation component is widely anticipated to provide a big boost to the overall number. New orders for Boeing aircraft were exceptionally strong at the Dubai Airshow in that month, and demand for new motor vehicles indicates that orders to replenish inventories could be solid.
The report on the third estimate of third quarter GDP for 2011 is on Thursday. Markets will quickly digest the last look at July-September period. At this point the fourth quarter is already well-advanced. With the hope of a more robust finish to the year, the older data simply is not as interesting.
Personal income and spending numbers for November will be released on Friday. Gains to wages and salaries will be modest, at best, while expenditures are likely to reflect a burst of holiday spending. Durable goods spending is likely to be substantial along with the improved pace of sales of motor vehicles.
The final Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December will be...Read more
