Next week's US data includes several important economic data releases, notably on retail sales, inflation, and conditions in the factory sector as well as the statement issued after the FOMC meeting.
The highlight of the economic data in the coming week is likely to be that for retail and food sales on Tuesday.
Stellar activity over the Black Friday weekend has heightened expectations for a solid report as the holiday shopping season got off to a start. The same-store sales comparisons for fiscal November were consistent with robust sales activity, although shoppers clearly were sticking to looking for bargains. Motor vehicle sales were strong in the month. Prices for gasoline declined, and will cut into the dollar level of overall sales.
The data on inflation will also reflect the impacts of falling gasoline prices, although to varying degrees. Rising prices for some foods will be visible as well.
Data in import and export prices on Wednesday will see some upward pressure in imports as petroleum costs rose for the month. Additionally, the uptick in the US dollar versus some currencies will raise non-petroleum import costs somewhat.
The November PPI on Thursday and the CPI on Friday will probably show only modest increases, at most. Contrary to the rise in petroleum prices, the cost of gasoline has been declining and should restrain any gains in the indexes' respective overall energy categories. Food prices have generally been rising only slightly, but a jump in the cost of some fresh fruits and vegetable will probably offset declines elsewhere.
We will get an early look at manufacturing activity in December on Thursday with the release of the New York Fed's Empire State Survey and the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook. Both reports may show readings for modest expansion as they continue to move forward from the softer readings over the summer months.
Industrial production and capacity utilization for November is due on...Read more
