The August 8 week is a fairly light one for economic data. The US Treasury auctions the first leg of its quarterly refunding package. The FOMC meets on Tuesday. Second quarter earnings reports will remain plentiful, but at this point most industry bellwethers have reported.
The highlight of a light week for economic data releases will be the report on retail and food sales for July on Friday. The numbers are likely to look lackluster in spite of a small rise in unit sales of motor vehicles. Gasoline prices were little changed from the prior month. While many retailers will have been able to clear out summer merchandise due to unusually hot weather in much of the US, new fall merchandise likely languished. Weekly measures of retail activity suggest that while July got off to a good start with sales around the July 4 holiday, sales in the rest of the month tapered off.
The earliest monthly reads on consumer confidence for August are the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index on Tuesday, and the preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. July data for consumer attitudes turned gloomier on volatility in financial markets and concerns associated with the economic outlook. That probably will not have improved in the first week or so of the current month.
The international trade deficit for June, which is due on Thursday probably will not help lift expectations for the second estimate of second quarter GDP. Although the trade gap may have narrowed from May, it will not be enough to provide any substantial upward revision to the 1.3% growth rate in the preliminary estimate.
The preliminary report on productivity and costs in the second quarter will be released on Tuesday, and will incorporate the revisions from the GDP data. The downward revisions to recent quarters will make the overall tone of these numbers softer for productivity.
The report on overall business inventories for June on Friday will...Read more
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