Much like the previous week, the major event is set for the end of the week, with the US labor market data due on Friday, although other highlights include the ISM data due on Wednesday and Thursday as well as Chicago PMI, which is also due on Wednesday.
Non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise 75,000 in August after the 117,000 rise in July, while the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 9.1%. The strike at Verizon should have a large impact on payrolls this month. Hourly earnings are seen rising 0.2% after see-sawing sharply in the last three months. The average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.4 hours for another month.
The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall to a reading of 48.5 in August after the sharp drop in July. The regional data already released suggest strong contraction.
Elsewhere on the US data front, Monday includes personal income data as well as the Manufacturing Outlook Survey from the Dallas Fed.
Personal income is expected to rise 0.3% in July, as non-farm payrolls rose 117,000 in the month, the average held steady at 34.3 hours, and average hourly earnings jumped 0.4% in the month. PCE is forecast to rise 0.5% after falling in June. Retail sales rose 0.5% in July, both including and excluding motor vehicle sales. The core PCE price index is expected to rise 0.2%.
Tuesday data includes the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting, which may have been overshadowed by the focus on Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech, which dominated focus in the previous week, while data is somewhat limited with releases dominated by the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence, which is expected to fall to a reading of...Read more
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