Based upon the December 5th market close in the December 2001 expiration, the Chicago Board of Trade 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract is currently pricing in a 80 percent probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower the federal funds target rate by at least 25 basis points from 2 percent to 1-3/4 percent at the FOMC meeting on December 11 (versus a 20 percent probability of no rate cut).
Summary Table
December 4: 4% for No Change versus 96% for -25 bps.
December 5: 20% for No Change versus 80% for -25 bps.
December 6:
December 7:
December 10:
December 11: FOMC meeting.
