According to the author, the recent price rises are based on the fact that the uncertainly caused by SARS and the war in Iraq has practically vanished and that the European and American interim reports for Q I of 2003 were better than forecasted.
Bjørn Schwarz expects the positive development to continue in the short term, perhaps until the next accounting season, when it will become apparent whether the companies share the investors' present optimism - or whether the growth prospects cannot be expected to improve significantly until later. The growth prospects for 2003 have currently been revised downwards despite the easing of the fiscal and monetary policies, which has been used in recent years to stimulate growth. However, in the longer term (6-12 months) the author expects a global turnaround.
If the investors' expectations for a business revival are not met, the risk of the Danish shares having a relapse is lower than is the case with the foreign shares. Among other things, this is due to the fact that the Danish blue chips are more defensive than foreign shares and that Denmark has been spared from financial scandals and has well-managed companies.
Read the article "Will the advancing equity markets of the past months continue?" in Focus no. 53 on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange's website www.cse.dk.
