James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, commented on the recent events in Venezuela and their implications for Bitcoin:
“A decisive shift in Venezuela toward US influence would have indirect but meaningful implications for Bitcoin through energy markets, geopolitics and confidence in the global financial system. Venezuela holds some of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and a US-backed transition that weakens Russian control via firms such as Rosneft would likely reshape global energy supply expectations. In the near term, this could act as a growth stimulant and place downward pressure on oil prices, reinforcing disinflationary trends and giving central banks more room to ease policy. Easier monetary conditions and improved global liquidity are typically supportive for Bitcoin, even if the immediate impulse comes from traditional macro channels rather than crypto-specific developments.
At the same time, the geopolitical signal would be significant. A clear setback for Russia in one of its few strategic footholds in the Western Hemisphere would strain its financial and political capacity, already stretched by sanctions and the war in Ukraine, while undermining the broader narrative of declining US power. That matters for Bitcoin because periods of heightened geopolitical realignment and erosion of trust in established power structures often strengthen demand for neutral, non-sovereign assets. While a Venezuela transition itself is unlikely to be a direct catalyst, the combination of shifting energy dynamics, pressure on sanctioned states and rising uncertainty around the durability of the existing geopolitical order would, on balance, reinforce Bitcoin’s longer-term appeal as a hedge against political and monetary instability.”
