Chicago Business Barometer - Revised Seasonal Adjustment

The Chicago Business Barometer was unrevised at 42.9 in December, but activity in the second half of 2015 was revised lower as a result of the annual seasonal adjustment recalculation.

In aggregate the Barometer was revised lower by eight points over H2 2015 with the majority of that revision  coming in Q4. Activity during the first half of the year was revised higher. Production was revised down significantly by a total of 12.7 points in H2 2015 with both New Orders and Inventories also revised lower. The most significant downward revision came in October, with the sharp spike in activity revised lower.
 
The revisions suggest that activity was softer during the second half of the year, in contrast to the previous data which had showed a strengthening.
 
The larger than usual revisions are partly due to an update in the seasonal adjustment methodology  from the Census Bureau’s X-11 procedure to X-12 which has been made to improve the accuracy of the seasonal adjustment.
 
All series in the Chicago Report are seasonally adjusted and the seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated annually every January.