This speech is provided in the author’s official capacity as the Commission’s Chief Economist and Director of the Division of Economic and Risk Analysis but does not necessarily reflect the views of the Commission, the Commissioners, or other members of the staff.
What might one be uncertain about?
- Outcome of a given FDA trial affecting valuation of a company
- Whether an executive of a company might be defrauding investors
- The return on S&P 500 on any given day? Over the next calendar year?
- Whether there will be failure of a major U.S. stock exchange in the next calendar year
- Whether your trading counterparty knows more than you
- Whether your bank will be forced to close due to withdrawals or loss of funding source
- What everybody else believes about these questions
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