CBOT: March 2003 Fed Watch

In advance of next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 18, the Chicago Board of Trade will be reporting daily rate change probabilities in the FOMC's federal funds target rate, as indicated by the CBOT® 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract. The CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract is a key benchmark interest rate barometer that reflects the forward overnight effective rate for excess reserves that are traded among commercial banks in the U.S. federal funds market.

Based upon the March 11th market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the April 2003 expiration is currently pricing in a 50 percent probability that the FOMC will lower the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 1-1/4 percent to one percent at the FOMC meeting on March 18 (versus a 50 percent probability of no rate change).

To learn more about the new 30-Day Federal Funds futures option contract that will be launched for trading starting Friday, March 14 at 10:00 a.m. Chicago time please visit the CBOT's website at www.cbot.com/fedfundsoptions.

Summary Table

March 11: 50% for No Change versus 50% for -25 bps.
March 12:
March 13:
March 14:
March 17:
March 18: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.