In advance of this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 20, the Chicago Board of Trade will be reporting daily rate change probabilities in the FOMC's federal funds target rate, as indicated by the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract. The CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract is a key benchmark interest rate barometer that reflects the forward overnight effective rate for excess reserves that are traded among commercial banks in the U.S. federal funds market.
Based upon the September 19 market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the September 2006 expiration is currently pricing in a 5 percent probability that the FOMC will increase the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 5-1/4 percent to 5-1/2 percent at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting (versus a 95 percent probability of no rate change).
This notification concludes this CBOT Fed Watch period. The next scheduled CBOT Fed Watch period will start on Wednesday, October 18, one full week prior to the next scheduled FOMC meeting on October 25.
Summary TableSeptember 13: 89% for No Change versus 11% for +25 bps.
September 14: 90% for No Change versus 10% for +25 bps.
September 15: 90% for No Change versus 10% for +25 bps.
September 18: 90% for No Change versus 10% for +25 bps.
September 19: 95% for No Change versus 5% for +25 bps.
September 20: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.
The information in this document, although taken from sources believed to be reliable, does not constitute investment advice and is not guaranteed by the Chicago Board of Trade as to its accuracy or completeness, nor any trading result, and is intended for purposes of information and education only. The Rules and Regulations of the Chicago Board of Trade should be consulted as the authoritative source of all current contract specifications and regulations.
