In advance of this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting on October 25, the Chicago Board of Trade will be reporting daily rate change probabilities in the FOMC's federal funds target rate, as indicated by the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract. The CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract is a key benchmark interest rate barometer that reflects the forward overnight effective rate for excess reserves that are traded among commercial banks in the U.S. federal funds market.
Based upon the October 24 market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the November 2006 expiration is currently pricing in a 2 percent probability that the FOMC will decrease the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 5-1/4 percent to 5 percent at the FOMC meeting on October 25 (versus a 98 percent probability of no rate change).
This notification concludes this CBOT Fed Watch period. The next scheduled CBOT Fed Watch period will start on Tuesday, December 5, one full week prior to the next scheduled FOMC meeting on December 12.
Summary TableOctober 18: 98% for No Change versus 2% for -25 bps.
October 19: 98% for No Change versus 2% for -25 bps.
October 20: 98% for No Change versus 2% for -25 bps.
October 23: 98% for No Change versus 2% for -25 bps.
October 24: 98% for No Change versus 2% for -25 bps.
October 25: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.
