Based upon the November 5 market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the November 2004 expiration is currently pricing in a 96 percent probability that the FOMC will increase the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 1-3/4 percent to 2 percent at the FOMC meeting on November 10 (versus a 4 percent probability of no rate change).
Summary Table
November 3: 7% for No Change versus 93% for +25 bps.
November 4: 7% for No Change versus 93% for +25 bps.
November 5: 4% for No Change versus 96% for +25 bps.
November 8:
November 9:
November 10: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.
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