Based upon the March 15 market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the April 2004 expiration is currently pricing in a two percent probability that the FOMC will increase the target rate by at least 25 basis points from one percent to 1-1/4 percent at the FOMC meeting on March 16 (versus a 98 percent probability of no rate change).
Summary Table
March 9: 100% for No Change versus 0% for +25 bps.
March 10: 100% for No Change versus 0% for +25 bps.
March 11: 100% for No Change versus 0% for +25 bps.
March 12: 100% for No Change versus 0% for +25 bps.
March 15: 98% for No Change versus 2% for +25 bps.
March 16: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.
The information in this document, although taken from sources believed to be reliable, does not constitute investment advice and is not guaranteed by the Chicago Board of Trade as to its accuracy or completeness, nor any trading result, and is intended for purposes of information and education only. The Rules and Regulations of the Chicago Board of Trade should be consulted as the authoritative source of all current contract specifications and regulations.