Based upon the June 24 market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the July 2003 expiration is currently pricing in a 100 percent probability that the FOMC will lower the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 1-1/4 percent to one percent at tomorrow's FOMC meeting.
In addition, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract is pricing in a 52 percent probability of a further 25-basis point decrease in the target rate to 3/4 percent (versus a 48 percent probability of just a 25-basis point rate cut).
This notification concludes this CBOT Fed Watch period. The next scheduled CBOT Fed Watch period will start on Tuesday, August 5, one full week prior to the next scheduled FOMC meeting on August 12.
Summary Table
June 18: 58% for -25 bps versus 42% for -50 bps.
June 19: 34% for -25 bps versus 66% for -50 bps.
June 20: 48% for -25 bps versus 52% for -50 bps.
June 23: 48% for -25 bps versus 52% for -50 bps.
June 24: 48% for -25 bps versus 52% for -50 bps.
June 25: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.
The information in this document, although taken from sources believed to be reliable, does not constitute investment advice and is not guaranteed by the Chicago Board of Trade as to its accuracy or completeness, nor any trading result, and is intended for purposes of information and education only. The Rules and Regulations of the Chicago Board of Trade should be consulted as the authoritative source of all current contract specifications and regulations.
