Based upon the January 27 market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the February 2006 expiration is currently pricing in a 98 percent probability that the FOMC will increase the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 4-1/4 percent to 4-1/2 percent at the FOMC meeting on January 31 (versus a 2 percent probability of no rate change).
Summary TableJanuary 24: 4% for No Change versus 96% for +25 bps.
January 25: 2% for No Change versus 98% for +25 bps.
January 26: 2% for No Change versus 98% for +25 bps.
January 27: 2% for No Change versus 98% for +25 bps.
January 30:
January 31: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.
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