Based upon the January 23 market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the February 2004 expiration is currently pricing in a zero percent probability that the FOMC will increase the target rate by at least 25 basis points from one percent to 1-1/4 percent at the FOMC meeting on January 28 (versus a 100 percent probability of no rate change).
Summary Table
January 21: 100% for No Change versus 0% for +25 bps.
January 22: 100% for No Change versus 0% for +25 bps.
January 23: 100% for No Change versus 0% for +25 bps.
January 26:
January 27:
January 28: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.
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