Based upon the September 14 market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the October 2004 expiration is currently pricing in a 94 percent probability that the FOMC will increase the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 1-1/2 percent to 1-3/4 percent at the FOMC meeting on September 21 (versus a 6 percent probability of no rate change).
Summary Table
September 14: 6% for No Change versus 94% for +25 bps.
September 15:
September 16:
September 17:
September 20:
September 21: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.
The information in this document, although taken from sources believed to be reliable, does not constitute investment advice and is not guaranteed by the Chicago Board of Trade as to its accuracy or completeness, nor any trading result, and is intended for purposes of information and education only. The Rules and Regulations of the Chicago Board of Trade should be consulted as the authoritative source of all current contract specifications and regulations.