Cairo Amman Bank Fash Comment: Budget Deficit Widens In The First Seven Months Of The Year Due To Sluggish Foreign Grants

• The Ministry of Finance released government budget figures for the first seven months of 2014, which showed that the government fiscal position had slightly deteriorated resulting in a wider deficit than the same period last year:  

The budget balance slightly deteriorated in the first seven months of the year compared to the same period the previous year, with a deficit of JD 461.5 million compared to last year’s deficit of  JD 370.4  million. The JD 91 million increase in the budget deficit was a result of a JD 431 million increase in total expenditure which offset a JD 340 million increase in total revenues and grants. The deficit figure seems to be underperforming official forecasts for the 2014 budget, as the fiscal deficit including grants is expected to narrow compared to the previous year. The deficit could narrow in the second half of the year, as foreign grants are committed, though it is better to remain cautious seeing that  it is the norm for the budget balance to do well in the first few month of the year, and then deteriorate further towards the end of the year.

• Total revenues and grants increased by around  JD 340 million in the first seven months of the year, as a result of an increase of JD 482 million in domestic revenues and a JD 142 million decrease in foreign grants for the same period. The rise in domestic revenue was mainly a result of an increase in non-tax revenue, and “tax on goods and services”.
• Total expenditures increased by around JD 431 million for the same period, due to a JD 362 million increase in current expenditures (mainly from increases in interest payments, social benefits, and military expenditures), and an increase of JD 69 million in capital expenditures.

Meanwhile, the fiscal balance before grants resulted in a budget deficit of JD 791 million during the first seven months of 2014,  compared to a budget deficit of JD 843 million during the same period of last year; a drop of around JD 51 million. The narrowing deficit in this case seems to signal that the fiscal balance so far is performing better then official forecasts for the 2014 budget.

Furthermore, net public debt reached around JD 20.3 billion by the end of July of this year, around 79.5% of 2014 GDP according to the Ministry of Finance’s calculations, increasing by around JD 1.251 million. External debt increased by around JD 1,173 million, while net domestic debt increased by around JD 78 million for the same period.

Net public debt hit the 80% of GDP ceiling at the end of 2013, with projections that it will reach around 83% by end of 2014.