ACER: The EU Will Need Higher LNG Imports To Refill Gas Storage Ahead Of Winter

In its Summer Supply Outlook 2026, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) assesses whether the EU’s gas system can meet demand, support exports and storage injections over the summer under normal market conditions. The report also includes an analysis of supplies and storage inventories to assess security of supply for winter 2026/27 and evaluates the system’s resilience under different stress scenarios, including supply disruptions.

ACER acknowledges the storage-filling challenges identified by ENTSOG. As this year’s reference scenario does not introduce major methodological changes compared with previous editions, ACER is not issuing a formal opinion on the 2026 edition.

Key findings from the 2026 Summer Supply Outlook:

• Low storage levels: At the start of the gas summer season (1 April 2026), average EU gas storage stood at 28% capacity, below the levels recorded at the start of the previous three summer seasons.
• High LNG demand: Refilling storage to the 90% target before winter (by 1 November) will require greater use of the EU’s gas infrastructure and higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports than in previous years.
• Supply disruption risks: The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is pushing up gas prices and weakening economic incentives for storage injections.
• A resilient system: The EU’s LNG regasification capacity is expected to help compensate for lower storage levels and support winter demand, provided adequate LNG supplies are secured.

What are ACER’s main considerations?

ACER highlights the challenges ahead, as identified in ENTSOG’s assessment:

• ACER’s latest analysis of European gas wholesale markets (winter 2025/2026) confirms that the EU’s LNG imports will need to rise by around 13% over 2025 levels to meet summer demand and reach the 90% storage target before winter. The 80% target remains achievable with 2025 LNG import levels.
• Storage refilling could become more challenging in the months ahead due to unfavourable winter–summer price spreads, the phase-out of short-term Russian LNG and pipeline gas contracts under the REPowerEU Gas Regulation and continued volatility due to the Middle East conflict.
• ACER’s analysis shows that storage injections remain below both the 10-year summer average and 2025 levels, while EU gas storage currently stands at around 49% capacity, similar to 2021 levels.

Given these risks, ACER encourages Member States and competent authorities to closely monitor storage-filling trajectories in the coming months and actively manage risks in compliance with the Gas Storage Regulation.

Looking ahead

ACER welcomes ENTSOG’s ongoing monitoring of storage injections and LNG import availability and underlines the importance of continuing to assess how supply disruptions could affect EU’s storage-filling targets. 

Finally, ACER highlights the need for timely storage injections in the coming months.