A new peace agreement between the United States and Iran is poised to shift market dynamics, easing inflationary pressures and refocusing investor attention on the booming AI sector and the outlook for Bitcoin, according to Marc des Ligneris, Senior Portfolio Manager at CoinShares.
"The major development this week is the peace agreement between the United States and Iran," des Ligneris stated. He noted that the nearly four-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz had a significant inflationary impact, contributing to higher rates in Europe and creating a challenging environment for the Federal Reserve. "For risk assets, the end of the conflict is clearly positive."
With the conflict resolved, des Ligneris predicts that normalizing supply chains will allow investors to return their focus to the massive wave of capital expenditure related to artificial intelligence.
"Technology companies continue to invest heavily in data center infrastructure, supporting manufacturing activity and economic growth," he explained. "Across the AI ecosystem, companies are also raising capital and pursuing IPOs to finance these investments."
This trend marks a significant shift from the market environment of the last fifteen years, which was dominated by share buybacks. "Going forward, markets are likely to be less predictable and potentially more volatile," he added.
Meanwhile, des Ligneris noted that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have recently faced pressure from shifting monetary policy expectations and capital being diverted to high-profile IPOs. This led to the first genuine net outflow from Bitcoin ETFs since their launch.
However, he sees a turning point on the horizon. "Interestingly, our proprietary market indicator...has recently approached levels that have historically coincided with major market bottoms."
Looking ahead, des Ligneris believes the macroeconomic backdrop is becoming more favorable for Bitcoin. "The main source of inflationary pressure appears set to fade, while the adoption of AI technologies could prove structurally deflationary over the medium term. This combination should create a more supportive backdrop for Bitcoin in the months ahead."
He concluded that as inflation risks recede and financial advisors become more equipped to recommend Bitcoin, "current market levels may offer an attractive opportunity to build strategic allocations."
