ACER issues its Opinion on the Winter Supply Outlook 2024/25 published by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG).
ENTSOG’s Winter Supply Outlook 2024/2025 evaluates the resilience of the European gas system by analysing different scenarios involving prolonged disruptions of Russian gas imports. The Outlook focuses also on Europe’s preparedness for winter 2024/2025 and summer 2025.
What is in ACER’s Opinion?
- ACER acknowledges that ENTSOG enlarged the scope of its methodology to include gas supply and storage developments (i.e. strategic reserves based on each Member States’ regulations, Ukrainian storage as a last resort) and to reconsider the role of LNG regasification terminal tanks for short-term storage flexibility. ACER also supports ENTSOG's efforts to model a ‘low LNG supply scenario’ that excludes Russian LNG supplies.
- ACER recommends ENTSOG to consider the following methodological improvements:
- The inclusion of a qualitative analysis of gas futures prices and summer-winter spreads for better forecasting of potential challenges for market-based filling of gas storages.
- Clarify the assumptions and methodology used to build the ‘low LNG supply scenario’.
- Specify capacities added by newly commissioned projects.
- Compare seasonal demand projections with forecasts from other institutions.
- ACER highlights the importance of a close cooperation between ENTSOG and ENTSO-E to ensure consistent results in their respective seasonal outlooks. In addition, ACER identified several risk factors for the upcoming year, including:
- likely stop of Russian gas transit through Ukraine after 2024;
- unusually cold winter;
- failure to reduce gas demand.
