Why a consultancy study?
Achieving the EU’s decarbonisation targets will require better use of existing energy grids as well as new investments. Identifying infrastructure needs and assessing system adequacy must be based on robust and consistent scenarios that reflect both national and EU objectives.
To support this, ACER commissioned a consultancy study aimed at identifying current challenges and areas for improvement in the development of energy scenarios for two key EU planning processes:
- the Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDPs) by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG; and
- the European Resource Adequacy Assessment (ERAA) by ENTSO-E.
The study offers recommendations to improve scenario-building practices by strengthening consistency, transparency and stakeholder engagement.
What are the key findings?
- National energy and climate plans (NECPs), which underpin the TYNDPs and ERAA scenarios, often lack sufficient detail and clarity. This limits the accuracy and consistency of the scenarios developed.
- The timing of the ERAA, TYNDPs and national energy and climate plans is not aligned, raising concerns about the reliability and consistency of the input data, particularly when updated NECPs are not yet available.
- National energy and climate plans integration into EU-wide scenarios remains partial. Despite recent improvements, there is still no formal validation process to ensure TYNDP and ERAA scenarios accurately reflect NECPs.
- Harmonisation across TYNDPs and ERAA scenarios is limited. Better alignment is needed to ensure consistency across the two exercises.
- Transparency and stakeholder engagement, particularly in the ERAA process, should be further enhanced.
Get involved!
Register for ACER’s webinar on 11 September 2025 to learn about the study’s main findings and engage with experts.
