Swati examines the uncertainty inherent in forecasting medium-term outcomes during large shocks, considering the Bernanke Review and responses to it. She argues that investments in measurement and analysis offer the best preparation for future uncertainties by providing accurate and timely insights into the economy. A simplified forecasting apparatus and a Staff forecast would enable more efficient use of expertise and committee time, while providing greater transparency and accountability.
A rich vein or fool’s gold? Economic forecasts during large shocks − speech by Swati Dhingra
