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Participants in the tour made individual estimates on the total size of the crop, which ranged from 300 million bushels to 501 million bushels. The weighted average was 392.74 million bushels. Last year's final estimate for the tour was 319.2 million bushels.
The freeze that came through a large portion of Kansas the first weekend in April has created a dichotomy in the crop, with some stands of wheat showing significant damage, and some showing attempts to recover, mostly in the eastern to central portions of the state. This raises the question of conditions to come in the following weeks and the portion of the crop’s ability to recover before harvest. The consensus also seems to be on when the wheat was planted, with some fields showing more damage indicative of further development at the time of frost due to earlier planting.
In the Western areas of Kansas, the crop observed at this time appears to be the best crop seen in recent years. Excellent stands of wheat, with more than substantial amounts of moisture could make up for the losses in eastern and central portions of the state due to freeze damage. Disease problems noted throughout the tour were powdery mildew, some tan spotting, mustard, leaf rust, and the heavy presence of bird cherry oat aphids.
Crop scouts on the tour spent Tuesday, Wednesday and today surveying Kansas, usually the top U.S. wheat producing state, trying to assess the production potential of hard red winter wheat for this year. It was observed by crop participants that the wheat seen on the third day showed some definite freeze damage, with estimates ranging lower than observed on Wednesday, mostly throughout Western Kansas. The average yield for the third day was 32.4 bushels per acre, 6.4 bushels lower than the 2006 estimate of 38.8 bushels per acre on the third day.
Emphasis was placed on the fact that this is what the current crop looks like at this given point in time. Weather is a major factor in the outcome of this year’s crop, as to whether or not the cooler temperatures and adequate moisture will prevail and enhance wheat plants during crucial development. Leaf rust could also be a potential problem, seen in many areas of Oklahoma and starting to show up in southern Kansas counties.
