The final participant estimate for the three-day tour average was a yield of 37.4 bushels per acre, 1.4 bushels lower than the 2003 estimate of 38.8 bushels per acre.
Participants in the tour made individual estimates on the total size of the crop, which ranged from 430 million bushels to 288 million bushels. The weighted average was 355.074 million bushels. Last year's final estimate for the tour was 363.99 million bushels.
The largest general concern regarding this year's crop was the lack of moisture that was apparent in the northwestern and southwestern portions of the state. Drought stress was evident in the western region of the state. Some freeze damage was seen, but not significant enough to be of a major concern, while hail damage was particularly noted in Sumner and Harper counties. The crop was also noted as being in an advanced stage of progression for this time of year. Some powdery mildew was noticed in fields west of Manhattan and northeast of Wichita.
Crop scouts on the tour spent Tuesday, Wednesday and today surveying Kansas, usually the top U.S. wheat producing state, trying to assess the production potential of hard red winter wheat for this year. More adequate moisture was observed on the third day of the tour, with rain moving through the area while observations were made. The average yield for the third day was 44.0 bushels per acre, .2 bushels higher than the 2003 estimate of 43.8 bushels per acre on the third day.
Emphasis was placed on the fact that this is what the current crop looks like at this given point in time. This year’s crop could show improvement with more rain, but considering the more advanced stage of development, plants in extremely dry areas are unlikely to benefit. More detailed information from the tour can be found on the KCBT’s website at http://www.kcbt.com.
This information is the opinion of tour participants and not the Kansas City Board of Trade.
