The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the July – September 2024 and October – December 2024 quarters. 

  • During the July – September 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $740 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion.[2]  The borrowing estimate is $106 billion lower than announced in April 2024, largely due to lower Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA) redemptions and a higher beginning-of-quarter cash balance.[3]
  • During the October – December 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $565 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $700 billion.[4]

During the April – June 2024 quarter, Treasury borrowed $234 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $778 billion. In April 2024, Treasury estimated borrowing of $243 billion and assumed an end-of-June cash balance of $750 billion. Privately-held net marketable borrowing was $9 billion lower largely because higher net cash flows and lower SOMA redemptions were partially offset by a $28 billion higher ending cash balance.  

Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, July 31, 2024. 

 

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[1] Privately-held net marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the SOMA but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions.  Secondary market purchases of Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities mature and assuming the Federal Reserve does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount. Additionally, buybacks are not expected to significantly affect privately-held net marketable borrowing as new issuance replaces securities that are bought back.

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[3] On May 1, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee announced that beginning on June 1 it would reduce the cap on redemptions of Treasury securities from the SOMA portfolio from $60 billion per month to $25 billion per month. 

[4] Treasury’s assumed end-of-December cash balance $700 billion is also its assumed cash balance upon the expiration of the debt limit suspension on January 1, 2025. This assumption is based on expected cash flows under Treasury’s cash management policies and is consistent with its authorities and obligations, including those under the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023.  The actual cash balance on January 1, 2025, may vary from this assumption based on changes to cash flows near the end of 2024.