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National Stock Exchange Of Lithuania Monthly Report - October 2002

Date 07/11/2002

The growth of GDP this year has surpassed analysts' forecasts, i.e. in the third quarter it increased by 6.6%, and during nine months it grew by 6.1%. In October, there were quite a few stock events and shareholders' meetings. Issuers of the Official and Current Lists informed market participants about nine-month results of operation, which were the following: 31 companies recorded profit at the end of three quarters, whereas 15 companies reported the losses.

Lietuvos Þemës Ûkio Bankas AB successfully placed a new share issue worth LTL 73.8 million. General shareholders' meetings of Stumbras AB, Vakarø Skirstomieji Tinklai AB, and Rytø Skirstomieji Tinklai AB voted for the increase of the authorised capital, whereas those of Utenos Trikotaþas AB, Trinyèiai AB, and Lifosa AB decided to reduce the authorised capital. The Privatisation Commission approved the privatisation programme of Klaipëdos Transporto Laivynas AB and established the initial sale price (LTL 65 million) of an 80.89% state-owned block of shares. The tender offer for the sale of this stake is to be placed in November.

Upon the decision of the Management Board of the Stock Exchange, shares of Panevëþio Melioracija AB and Aliejus AB will be admitted to a special securities group of the Current List, the issuer of which seeks to buy-in own shares and has no long-term intention to quote its shares on the Stock Exchange, on November 4 and 18, respectively. On 4 December 2002, shares of Dainiai AB will be removed from this special group to the group of Unlisted securities, to which central market procedures are applied.

In October, share supply did not change, whereas the demand surged by 40%, which led to the reduction of share supply-demand ratio to 3. However, neither this change nor relatively good financial results of companies stirred the market up. Share turnover was just LTL 23 million and accounted for as little as 15.3% in the total securities turnover. This was the smallest monthly turnover as compared to share turnovers recorded in October during last five years.

Trading in shares differs from that of the previous year, yet, October does not stand out among other months of the current year. In 2001, February was the only month with the turnover smaller than LTL 30 million, and the total turnover of two months exceeded LTL 100 million. This year, the mark of LTL 30 million was overstepped only by adding up share turnovers of three months. Only in September share turnover was larger than LTL 200 million. The major reason accounting for such a tendency is decreasing free float as well as smaller net investments into securities of Lithuanian companies. During three quarters of 2001, net investments into the share market amounted to LTL 35.8 million, whereas during the corresponding period this year they were negative (-LTL 10.4 million).

As a result, the process of capital concentration is slowing down. Some analysts are probably right by saying that the largest amount of shares is in the hands of securities professionals who follow other principles of trading. This is well illustrated by trading in shares by block transactions, i.e. the number of such transactions concluded during ten months of the current year is 1.8 times higher than that concluded during the corresponding period in 2001. The average value per transaction, however, dropped from LTL 149 thousand (in 2001) to LTL 62 thousand. Entirely opposite tendencies are observed in central market trading in shares, i.e. the number of transactions concluded is similar this and last year, although the average value per transaction moved up from LTL 3.7 thousand to LTL 4.6 thousand.

In October, the total securities turnover reached LTL 151 million. As compared to September, turnover of the Government securities, amounting to LTL 128 million, augmented by 47%. It is very likely that such tendencies will remain until the end of the year.

The total securities turnover for ten months of the current year was by 5% larger than that of the same period last year, and the share turnover marked a 22% fall. The turnover of the Government securities, standing at LTL 1.06 billion, marked a 5% increase over the total turnover of the Government securities in 2001.