European Retail Investors Bullish On Cryptocurrencies After Political Leaders’ Endorsements: Spectrum Markets

• Spectrum Markets’ SERIX sentiment shows a bullish trend for both Bitcoin and Ether, coinciding with price increases (BTC 59.728,2 EUR¹; ETH 2.986,32 EUR²)
• Endorsements from political figures such as Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., along with decisions by the Russian government, have boosted Bitcoin demand
• Ether’s rising demand is driven by increased institutional interest, including ETF launches and the European Investment Bank’s (EIB) Ether-based bond issuance.

Spectrum Markets (“Spectrum”), the pan-European trading venue designed for retail investors, has published its SERIX sentiment data for European retail investors for July, revealing a bullish trend for both cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ether. The SERIX value for Bitcoin remained stable at a high level with 107 points (down from 108 on June), while the value for Ether increased from 110 to 113 points.

The SERIX value indicates retail investor sentiment, with a number above 100 marking bullish sentiment, and a number below 100 indicating bearish sentiment. (See below for more information on the methodology).

Market opinion

“The bullish trading behaviour, alongside rising prices in July – appears to be backed by recent statements from the U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump, who promised to transform the United States into a ‘global crypto currency capital and bitcoin superpower’ with prospects of Bitcoin-friendly regulations if elected. Trump announced plans to stop selling confiscated Bitcoin stocks and establish a ‘strategic Bitcoin reserve’. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. went even further, advocating for the daily purchase of 550 Bitcoins by the U.S. government to fund a substantial Bitcoin reserve. Additionally, the Russian government’s legalisation of Bitcoin for export trade payments to counteract Western sanctions has likely been seen by retail investors worldwide as a strong signal, potentially fueling demand. However, the abrupt drop in price of Bitcoin and Ether in early August, took many investors by surprise, highlighting once again the dynamic and unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market”, says Michael Hall, Head of Distribution at Spectrum Markets.

“In terms of Ether, the bullish sentiment may be driven by the approval of nine Ether ETFs, which began trading on July 23^rd. The European Investment Bank’s (EIB) issuance of its first digital bond also contributed as another factor. Despite Bitcoin's advancements, many investors tend to favour Ether due to technological improvements such as ‘staking,’ which allows for dividend payments. Ether is increasingly significant in decentralised finance and Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), lowering the barrier for gaming and social media applications. So, at the end there is a strong supportive story also for Ether”, Hall concludes.

Spectrum’s July data

In July 2024, order book turnover on Spectrum was €240.3 million, with 36.3% of trades taking place outside of traditional hours (i.e., between 17:30 and 9:00 CET).

The order book turnover was distributed among various underlying assets as follows: 77.2% on indices, 3.6% on currency pairs, 8.7% on commodities, 7.7% on equities and 2.8% on cryptocurrencies. The top three traded underlying markets were NASDAQ 100 (29.4%), DAX 40 (25.1%), and DOW 30 (12%).

Looking at the SERIX data for the top three underlying markets, the DAX 40 dropped from a bullish sentiment to a neutral 100, while the NASDAQ 100 increased from a bearish 99 to a neutral 100 as well DOW 30 remained bearish at 96.