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CBOT Fed Watch

Date 09/12/2002

Based upon the December 9 market close, the CBOT® 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the December 2002 expiration is currently pricing in an 11 percent probability that the FOMC will lower the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 1-1/4 percent to one percent at the FOMC meeting on December 10 (versus an 89 percent probability of no rate change).

This notification concludes this CBOT Fed Watch period. The next scheduled CBOT Fed Watch period will start on Wednesday, January 22, one full week prior to the next scheduled FOMC meeting on January 29.

Summary Table
December 3: 89% for No Change versus 11% for -25 bps.
December 4: 89% for No Change versus 11% for -25 bps.
December 5: 89% for No Change versus 11% for -25 bps.
December 6: 89% for No Change versus 11% for -25 bps
December 9: 89% for No Change versus 11% for -25 bps
December 10: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.